War and the Internet

This article is being written in response to a request to expand on my comment in CERN that "In 25-40 years major wars will be a thing of the past due to the Internet."

First, I will assume that the reader is familiar with Alvin Toffler's book The Third Wave. In this book, the author notes the similarity between the Industrial Revolution and the Computer Revolution. And I will note that the author notes that in both cases the effects go well beyond its namesake. For example, because of the Industrial Revolution, slavery was abolished (noting that some backward places still have slavery). In a similar fashion, I think that major wars will be abolished due to the Computer in general, and Internet in particular.

Some of this is already evident. That is, smart bombs, etc. tend to keep armies fighting armies as was done before the Industrial Revolution, rather than population fighting population. Iraq has shown this. During the first Iraq war there was a story about a "bunker" which the United States bombed. Iraq claimed it was a bomb shelter, but the United States claimed it was a command bunker. This was widely reported, but I didn't see anyone reporting the true significance of this event. That is, those people who stayed in their houses to ride out the attack were safe. The people who fled to the bunker - whatever it's purpose - were killed. This announced a major change in the direction of war. I think the Iraqis figured it out because later I saw reports that when the United States was bombing Iraq (again, ignoring the morality of the situation) the Iraqis continued with their lives without missing a beat. They knew the military was the target, not them.

The Industrial Revolution wars made the civilian population afraid. The Computer Revolution did away with the fear.

Now comes the Internet. Before the Internet it was easy for the government of any country to control information. That is, the person who controlled the presses controlled access to information. (Before the Industrial Revolution, the idea that information would be commonly available was foreign.) With the Internet, this control is lost.

With any war there has to be some "us-them" dynamic. That is, the government has to paint the enemy as someone else, preferably a non-human. But the free flow of information that the Internet provides makes that difficult. That is, when I can converse with a person that is far away, and can see that they are a person even if the government depicts them otherwise, then one of the basis for the war is broken, and the war itself cannot stand.

I'm not really that sure of the time frame. That is, many things can have their affect. That is, the Military-Industrial complex, which is quite strong now in the United States, must be defeated. But the seeds of that defeat are already being sown. That is, people in the United State have been willing to put up with the wars, but have not been willing to pay for them.

Therefore, the wars continue, in theory, until other countries get tired funding of them. Then the wars that the United States has created will go away (along with the world dominance). I've seen some estimates that the financial basis for the wars will dry up in maybe five years, maybe less. That is, if there is not a change in the way the United States does business, then the United States will not be able to pay the interest on their debt in as little as five years, and they will be forced into peace.

I will note that my comment said "major wars." I could see small "gang war" type situations, and maybe some civil wars as bad rulers are overthrown, but no major wars between nations. Also, the computer makes terrorism easier, so there may be some terrorist attacks as well. It will probably not be the Garden of Eden (but one can hope).

It may also be that the death of the Military-Industrial complex may be accompanied by a major civil war in the United States. That is, in the United States the Industrial Revolution eventually won out, but not before there was a major war, the "Civil War" also called the "War between the States." This could happen again, and with little warning.

Another reason for the demise of major war is the demise of the nation state. There was a comment to that affect in the CERN article. That is, as the Internet becomes more powerful, the power of the governments must decrease. The die is cast, and the nations may try to put the genie back into the bottle, but it won't work.