Collapse of the American Empire

This was written on July 28, 2003, in reply to a discussion about the collapse of the American Empire.

(This essay sounds like something I'd like to write) Actually, during the Reagan administration, and the first Bush administration and continuing into the Clinton administration there were people - respected politicians, etc. - predicting that if the economic policies of the Reagan era, which GW is trying to emulate, that the collapse of the United States would be around 2005. I think the policies of the Clinton administration extended that, and would have prevented the collapse, so this movement kind of faded away.

A few months ago there was a special on the history channel about the Spartans. (I think it was called the Rise and Fall of the Spartans.) I didn't see the rise part, but caught the fall part twice. The Spartans fell over just a very few years - that is, the final decline took less than 20 years as I recall. I could see a parallel with the future Bush has in mind.

That is, the Spartans were at the peek of their power, and had conquered all of Greece, including their arch enemy, Athens. Therefore, there should have been a time of peace, they had conquered the world. However, their lust for more power required them to turn on their allies because they didn't know how to live without war. This did them in because eventually they had to stand alone against their allies. Their allies knew how to fight them.

The last time the United States lived in a war - free state was prior to 1940. To put that another way, there are old men who have known nothing but war. Therefore they think this is the way things have to be. The truth is the United States needs to choose peace, and if we do, there is nothing anyone will do to stop it.

GW has chosen war in our name. First Iraq, next North Korea. I can already see the propaganda being put out by the press. Talk about a "face off along the DMZ," where just a year or so ago the talk was about how the North and the South were opening diplomatic channels. There is, of course, total disregard for the history of Korea in the demands Bush makes for peace. As with Afghanistan and again with Iraq, Bush wants war, and any diplomatic attempts are just window dressing.

I have heard Bush declare that the 21st century is the American century, and have wondered at the humor in this. I agree with this article that if the policies of the Bush administration are not reversed the United States does not have long to last. I know, however, that when the final collapse begins there will be people in the street with guns. As one reference put it, Bill Gates has a fortune only because the government protects it. If the government were not there he would not have a fortune. That is, there could be an economic reordering at the point of a gun if the government of the United States collapses.

The whole problem is that people do not understand economics. And small wonder, most economist don't either. That is, economist become so involved with one theory or another, most of which don't work, that they forget some fundamentals, like the pigeonhole principle. (That is, if you draw a circle around anything - a country, a city, a company, or even an individual - if there is more money going out than is coming in, eventually the supply is depleted.) People become easily manipulated by slogans. (Tax cuts stimulate the economy), (spending increases stimulate the economy), etc, and quick fixes that they are ineffective at fighting the idiots in charge. For that reason I don't hold out much hope for the economy, and have been predicting a major depression since Bush started talking about tax cuts. (Gore may have had the same problem for other reasons, but we will never know, of course.)

It is unfortunate that big business types do not understand that a good economy is good for everyone, including the big guys. If people are unemployed they are not building the big houses these idiots want. You cannot eat a dollar bill, as the saying goes. Sort of the "rising tide that floats all boats" Reagan used to talk about, except in reverse.

Well, enough for now.